Following Congresswoman Martha Roby’s decision to not seek re-election, Republicans in the 2nd congressional district have no shortage of options as her replacement. However, Dothan business Jeff Coleman appears to be the clear choice as their new standard-bearer. Unless Coleman’s opponents begin an aggressive campaign against him, Coleman sits well-positioned to win outright in March and avoid a runoff.
This is all according to polling done by We Ask America, a nationally recognized polling firm.
- President Trump has near-unanimous job approval with Republicans. 90% of likely Republican primary voters approve of the job the president is doing, with 76% strongly approving. Coupled with 91% of those same Republicans having a favorable image of him and 72% self-identifying as “Trump or America First Republicans”, the president is untouchable in the second congressional district.
- Jeff Coleman has built himself a stellar image with Republican voters. While Jeff Coleman (67% total name ID), Troy King (69%) and Barry Moore (61%) all have similar name identifications, Coleman sits far better off than the latter two with a net image of +49% (58% Fav/9% Unfav). Both King and Moore, while liked overall, have higher unfavorables with King sitting at a net image of +23% (46% Fav/23% Unfav) and Moore with a net image of +17% (39% Fav/22% Unfav).
- Jeff Coleman has a massive lead and could avoid a runoff. Riding his impressive image with likely Republican primary voters, Coleman receives 43% of the vote, 27-points higher than his next closest opponent, Troy King, who sits at 16%. Barry Moore at 8% and Jessica Taylor at 5% come in a distant third and fourth, respectively. While 25% of voters remain undecided, Coleman is best positioned to capture a large portion of that vote. 22% have a favorable opinion of Coleman versus 12% having an unfavorable opinion (net +10). If Coleman can convince just a quarter of those undecided voters to vote for him, he should win outright and avoid a runoff.
- If Coleman fails to clinch outright, Barry Moore could sneak past Troy King for second place. While King leads Moore by 8% overall (16%-8%), Moore is far better positioned to capture some of the remaining undecided voters. Of the 25% who say they are undecided, Moore has an image of net +7% (22% Fav/17% Unfav), while King is underwater at net -2% (24% Fav/26% Unfav). While it ultimately won’t matter if Coleman eclipses 50%, the race for second should be a close one.
- In a runoff, Jeff Coleman will still be the overwhelming favorite. If Coleman is forced into a runoff, he is well-positioned to immediately capture the votes of those who failed to advance. 53% of voters list Coleman among their top two choices, while the next highest is Troy King at just 26%. Additionally, 31% of King voters and 27% of Moore voters choose Coleman as their second choice, higher than any other candidate.
This poll was conducted between January 14th and 15th, 2020 using a blend of automated calls to landlines and text message surveys to cell phones. In all, 600 interviews were achieved among registered voters in the second congressional district of Alabama, who are likely to vote in the 2020 March primary election. 240 of these responses came from cell phones. The Margin of Error for this survey is +/- 3.99% at a Confidence Interval of 95%